Spain’s regional elections in Andalusia were supposed to offer clarity ahead of the country’s next general election. Instead, they exposed a political landscape that is becoming more fragmented, more polarised and increasingly dependent on uneasy alliances.
The vote delivered another heavy blow to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and his socialist (PSOE) party, which suffered its worst-ever result in the southern region — historically one of its strongest territories — while also underlining the limits of the right-wing opposition’s own path back to power.
The People’s Party (PP) – led nationally by Alberto Núñez Feijóo – emerged as the largest force in the 109-seat regional parliament with 53 seats, falling short of the 55 needed for an outright majority. The PSOE collapsed to just 28 seats, while the far-right Vox party increased its representation by one seat to 15, effectively making it the region’s kingmaker once again. ALSO READ: PP wins Andalusia election but loses majority, leaving it reliant on far-right Vox.
The outcome means Andalusian leader Juan Manuel Moreno now faces the same dilemma confronting the PP across much of Spain: how to govern while trying to preserve a moderate image yet still depending on Vox support. ALSO READ: PP wins Castilla y León election, but needs far-right’s support – and PSOE improves its result.
Moreno himself admitted after the result that ‘we have fallen short’, adding: ‘It falls to us to take responsibility for forming a government.’
The election was the latest in a series of regional setbacks for Sánchez’s PSOE after defeats in Aragón, Extremadura and Castilla y León, reinforcing the impression that Spain’s political centre of gravity is shifting steadily to the right. ALSO READ: Far-right Vox rejoins Extremadura government in ‘national priority’ deal with PP.
Yet the Andalusian result also demonstrated that the right-wing bloc is not dominant enough to govern comfortably on its own. That tension is increasingly shaping Spanish politics. ALSO READ: PP secures Aragón leadership with Vox in renewed ‘national priority’ pact.
The result in Andalusia deepens pressure on Sánchez domestically at a difficult moment in his premiership. While he has cultivated a high-profile international image as one of Europe’s most outspoken progressive leaders — particularly through clashes with US President Donald Trump over Iran and criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza — his standing at home has been eroded by corruption investigations involving relatives and former close political allies. ALSO READ: Pedro Sánchez vows not to quit, and presents 15-point anti-corruption plan.
The contrast between Sánchez’s reputation abroad and perceptions inside Spain has become one of the defining features of his leadership. ALSO READ: PM Sánchez dismisses calling early elections: ‘It’s an honour to govern even in these circumstances’.
Internationally, he is often praised for positioning Spain as a progressive counterweight within Europe and for expanding the country’s diplomatic reach across Latin America, the Arab world and China. ALSO READ: Spain, China unite against global instability as Xi puts Madrid ‘on right side of history’.
Domestically, however, voters appear increasingly preoccupied by inflation, housing pressures, immigration, healthcare concerns and political instability.
His government has raised pensions, increased the minimum wage and moved to regularise around 500,000 undocumented migrants — policies Sánchez frames as social progress but which opponents portray as evidence of an overly permissive immigration agenda. ALSO READ: Spain to commence mass regularisation of undocumented migrants.
Vox has aggressively targeted that issue in particular. The party’s Andalusian leader, Manuel Gavira, claimed voters had backed Vox’s hardline immigration stance, including its ‘national priority’ proposal that would favour Spaniards in access to housing and welfare benefits. ALSO READ: Spain’s PSOE moves to block ‘national priority’ policy, warning of ‘first- and second-class citizens’.
Although Vox only gained one additional seat, analysts say the significance lies less in its growth than in its entrenched influence.
The dependence on Vox to govern regionally creates a strategic problem for Feijóo and the PP nationally. Opinion polls currently place the PP ahead of the PSOE before Spain’s next general election, which must be held before August 2027, but the Andalusian vote reinforced doubts over whether the PP can secure enough support to govern without relying on the far-right.
The PP has already faced difficult coalition negotiations with Vox in several regions, and similar tensions could emerge nationally.
At the same time, the election also revealed fractures within Spain’s left-wing electorate.
One of the night’s strongest performances in Andalusia came from the regionalist left-wing party Adelante Andalucía, which jumped from two seats to eight. The gains suggested that while left-wing voters remain mobilised, many are drifting away from parties associated directly with Sánchez and his governing coalition, in particular the Sumar left-wing umbrella group.
That fragmentation could complicate Sánchez’s long-term survival strategy, which has depended heavily on assembling broad coalitions of left-wing, nationalist and regional parties in parliament.
Yet despite the defeats, few in Madrid expect Sánchez to step aside.
The prime minister has repeatedly rejected opposition demands for an early national election and remains determined to run again. Allies point to his political resilience and his ability to recover from apparent crises — something Sánchez himself embraced in his 2019 memoir Manual de Resistencia (‘Resistance Manual’).
In 2023, after suffering major regional defeats, Sánchez surprised observers by calling a snap general election that ultimately allowed him to remain in office through alliances with smaller parties despite finishing behind the PP in the national vote.
His supporters believe the same formula could still work again: mobilising progressive voters through warnings about a future PP-Vox government.
Sánchez argues that such an alliance would threaten social protections and lead to more far-right policies on immigration, equality and civil rights.
But the political environment now appears considerably more difficult.
His minority coalition has struggled to pass legislation, Spain has not approved a new national budget since 2023, and there are signs of growing public fatigue after eight years of Sánchez in power. He is now the second-longest-serving leader in Spain’s modern democratic era.
Even so, analysts caution against reading regional elections as a direct predictor of what will happen nationally.
Spain’s parliamentary system means the largest party does not necessarily govern — the decisive factor is the ability to build a working majority in parliament. Sánchez has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to negotiate with ideological rivals and regional parties in order to stay in office.
That may ultimately become the central question after Andalusia: not simply whether Spain is moving rightward, but whether the right can assemble a durable governing coalition without becoming politically captive to Vox in the process.
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