Spain’s right retains clear majority in poll as Socialists close gap on PP

The survey, conducted by 40dB for El País and Cadena SER, projects that the PP, Vox and the Union del Pueblo Navarro party (UPN) would take about half the vote and win more than 190 seats between them. An outright majority in Spain’s 350-seat lower house requires 176.

The race to become the largest party is much closer. The PP is projected to win 31.9% of the vote and 129 seats, eight fewer than in the outgoing Congress. The PSOE has gained 1.8 percentage points since the previous 40dB poll and is projected to win 119 seats, down two. The gap in vote share is within the poll’s reported margin of error.

The poll was conducted from 2 to 4 November in the aftermath of the train collision at Urda, which killed 69 people on the Madrid–Seville high-speed line. The final interviews took place after Transport Minister Óscar Puente resigned. ALSO READ: Spain’s transport minister Óscar Puente resigns after latest deadly high-speed rail crash.

The PSOE gained ground compared with the previous survey, while PP support held steady and Vox slipped by nearly a point. The survey cannot establish how the crash or the resignation affected voting intentions. Click here for full polling data published by El País. ALSO READ: Sánchez seeks campaign reset after Puente’s resignation and US election setback for Trump.

Vox gains underpin the right’s lead

Despite its slight dip in the latest poll, Vox stands to make the biggest gains since the 2023 election. Santiago Abascal’s party is polling 5.6% above its result then and is projected to rise from 33 seats to 61. The survey suggests that as many as 15% of those who voted PP in 2023, equivalent to around 1.2 million voters, could switch to Vox.

The PSOE are also losing some of their 2023 voters to the PP, but are drawing support from the left. Around one in four people who backed the Sumar alliance in 2023 now say they would vote PSOE. Turnout could still make a difference. Only 68% of PSOE voters say they are certain to vote, almost seven points below the figure for PP voters. ALSO READ: Spain’s right-wing PP win the 2023 election, but not a majority, even with far-right Vox.

Sánchez remains the most popular choice for prime minister, backed by 30% of respondents. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo is on 20%, just 0.2 points ahead of Abascal.

Parties to the left of the PSOE face losses

Frente Amplio, led by former Barcelona mayor Ada Colau, is projected to take 5% of the vote and 10 seats. Sumar won 31 seats in 2023. Podemos, which is running separately under Irene Montero, is polling at 1.2% and is projected to lose its representation in Congress. ALSO READ: Spain’s left heads into election divided as unity talks collapse.

Several regional parties on the left are forecast to gain seats. The Catalan pro-independence party Esquerra Republicana (ERC) would rise from seven to 10, the Basque party EH Bildu from six to seven, and the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) from one to two. Adelante Andalusia is projected to enter Congress with three seats.

The Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV) and Carles Puigdemont’s Catalan pro-independence party Junts per Catalunya (JxCat) would each be reduced to three seats, down from five and seven respectively. Both could lose their own parliamentary groups. Coalición Canaria is projected to retain its single seat, while UPN would rise from one to two after agreeing a joint list with the PP in Navarra.

A PP–Vox coalition is the most popular option

A coalition between the PP and Vox was the most popular government option in the poll, favoured by 25.4% of respondents, compared with 23% who wanted another left-wing alliance. Some 42% expect Vox to be part of the next government. About one in three respondents said that prospect worried them, while one in five said it frightened them. ALSO READ: PP and Vox strike Senate election deal with judicial appointments in their sights.

Voters gave the government and the opposition similarly poor marks. Around a quarter rated each positively and nearly half gave each a failing grade. About 30% thought the PP would have governed the country better. ALSO READ: Feijóo leaves door open to governing with Vox and sets out plans to revisit abortion and euthanasia laws.

40dB interviewed 2,000 eligible voters online from 2 to 4 November 2026. The survey covered Spain apart from Ceuta and Melilla and reported a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.