Spanish police are assessing the possibility of another large-scale attempt to enter the North African enclave of Ceuta later this month after identifying an active online campaign encouraging migrants to gather at the Moroccan border on 15 August.
According to a Guardia Civil assessment compiled from publicly available information, messages promoting a collective crossing have been circulating across Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram since late July. Investigators stress that while the online campaign is genuine, there is currently no certainty over whether it will translate into a significant physical attempt to reach Spanish territory.
The six-page report concludes that the digital mobilisation is authentic, but draws a clear distinction between the existence of online calls and confirmation that a mass crossing will actually take place.
Rather than predicting that an assault on the border is inevitable, the document states that there is ‘an active and potentially mobilising digital call for that date; its execution, size and authorship have not yet been confirmed’.
Guardia Civil investigators believe there is a genuine possibility that people could attempt to cross into Ceuta around 15 August, although the eventual scale of any movement remains impossible to predict.
‘The risk of materialisation is real, but its magnitude is uncertain. Morocco’s preventive action on roads, at stations, in Fnideq and along the coast will be decisive, as will Spanish reinforcements,’ the report says.
The assessment was prepared using open-source intelligence, analysing social media platforms and media reports rather than police or intelligence material. Its purpose was to determine whether an organised call existed, how widely it had spread and whether there were signs of coordination.
Investigators say the campaign has appeared across numerous social media groups with memberships that, when combined according to media reports, total between 400,000 and 422,560 users. However, the Guardia Civil cautions that these figures should be treated carefully, as membership numbers alone do not indicate how many people intend to participate.
Instead, the report says the strongest indicators are the repeated references to 15 August, the consistent identification of locations near Ceuta – particularly Castillejos (Fnideq) – as gathering points, discussions about how to organise the crossing and the persistence of these messages over several days.
Among the online posts identified by investigators are messages stating: ‘We’ve created a group. Anyone who wants to join is welcome’, alongside the date ’15/08/2026′.
Other messages reportedly include phrases such as ‘Our last chance’ and ‘Everything will be revealed that day’.
One of the online groups highlighted in the investigation is called Haraga mrc, a reference to the North African term harraga, commonly used to describe people attempting to migrate or cross international borders irregularly.
The Guardia Civil also notes that false or misleading information has been circulating online, including claims that the border would be opened, that asylum would automatically be granted, that financial assistance would be available or that anyone reaching Ceuta could not be returned.
Although the online campaign appears to show some degree of coordination, investigators say they have found no evidence from the publicly available material linking it to the Moroccan government, its security services, organised criminal groups or people-smuggling networks.
At the same time, the report rejects the idea that the campaign is entirely spontaneous. Instead, it concludes there appears to be ‘some degree of digital facilitation’, suggesting an element of organisation, although exactly who is responsible has not been established.
The Guardia Civil stressed that its findings are based exclusively on open-source information gathered up to 4 August, including social media activity and reporting in both the Spanish and Moroccan press. It says the assessment will need to be updated as new information becomes available.
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🔴ÚLTIMA HORA | El programa @MananerosTVE ha tenido acceso a un documento de la Guardia Civil que demuestra que la convocatoria para una nueva entrada masiva de migrantes en Ceuta es real. Está planeada para el día 15 de agosto.
— RTVE Noticias (@rtvenoticias) August 6, 2026
🎙️ @DanielLuisMar10 #Canal24Horas pic.twitter.com/poTcyWipSJ
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