The European Commission issued its revised autumn outlook on Monday, lifting its expectations for Spain’s economic performance to 2.9% growth in 2025 and 2.3% the following year.
For 2027, Brussels projects a further 2% expansion of Spanish GDP, signalling a solid and steady trajectory that outpaces much of Europe. The EU institution’s upgrade for the current year – an increase of 0.2 points – brings its estimate into line with the Spanish government’s own 2025 forecast of 2.9%.
These improvements come amid a sustained period of post-pandemic recovery in Spain, which has drawn international attention. The Economist recently named Spain its ‘economy of the year’ for 2024, citing the country’s longer-term momentum. ALSO READ: Spain’s IBEX 35 hits all-time high, surpassing 2007 peak.
Spain is also expected to post the strongest expansion among the EU’s major economies. Its growth rate this year will be roughly double the EU average of 1.4% and well above Germany’s predicted 0.2% rise and France’s 0.7%.
Across the continent, the EU Commission warns of a challenging backdrop shaped by geopolitical strains – from the war in Ukraine to US-China trade friction. Even so, it expects the EU economy as a whole to grow by 1.4% in both 2025 and 2026, and by 1.5% in 2027.
Brussels notes that Europe performed slightly better than anticipated at the start of the year, ‘mainly due to the increase in exports in anticipation of the increase in tariffs’. It says activity held up between June and August and should ‘continue moderately expanding’ through 2027. The eurozone, however, is forecast to trail the wider EU, with growth of 1.3% this year, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.
Analysts say that part of Spain’s relative resilience is attributed to its ‘low exposure’ to the US economy. Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to ease from 2.5% at the end of this year to 2% in 2026 – slightly higher than the May estimate by 0.1 points. ALSO READ: IMF confirms Spain’s lead as fastest-growing advanced economy for two years in a row.
EU officials note potential risks, such as a downturn in tourism linked to weaker growth in Germany and France, although no such decline has appeared yet. Technical teams also highlight a shift in visitors’ origins: fewer US tourists and a rising number of travellers from Asia, bringing more diversity to the sector.
Regarding Spain’s public finances, the EU Commission expects the budget deficit to shrink from 2.5% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2027, helped by last year’s tax measures, the removal of energy-related subsidies, and favourable economic conditions.
The domestic labour market is forecast to remain resilient. Unemployment should drop to 10.4% this year and slip below 10% during 2026 and 2027 – levels not reached in a decade, though still high by EU standards. Commission sources emphasise ‘the clear contribution’ of migration to Spain’s employment figures and broader growth, while cautioning that inflows may slow as economic expansion eases and housing shortages in major cities intensify. ALSO READ: Spain’s unemployment rate rises slightly, even as number of people employed hits new record.
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Todos los servicios de análisis, nacionales e internacionales, siguen revisando al alza sus previsiones.
— Carlos Cuerpo (@carlos_cuerpo) November 17, 2025
📈Hoy la @ComisionEuropea eleva el crecimiento de España al 2,9% en 2025 y 2,3% en 2026.
🆕El Gobierno actualizará su cuadro macro elevando sus previsiones hasta el 2,9%. pic.twitter.com/ZH06Gcf0Fd
Todos los servicios de análisis, nacionales e internacionales, siguen revisando al alza sus previsiones.
— Carlos Cuerpo (@carlos_cuerpo) November 17, 2025
📈Hoy la @ComisionEuropea eleva el crecimiento de España al 2,9% en 2025 y 2,3% en 2026.
🆕El Gobierno actualizará su cuadro macro elevando sus previsiones hasta el 2,9%. pic.twitter.com/ZH06Gcf0Fd
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