Spain are the favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to a new Goldman Sachs forecasting model that places the European champions ahead of France, defending champions Argentina and five-time winners Brazil.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, led by Jan Hatzius, have calculated that Spain have a 26% chance of lifting the trophy at this summer’s tournament, which will be staged across the United States, Mexico and Canada from 11 June to 19 July. ALSO READ: Spain heads to World Cup without any Real Madrid players as Barça dominates squad.
The investment bank’s forecast is based on a statistical model that combines historical international match data, team rankings, scoring ability and geographical factors. At its core is the Elo rating system, originally developed for chess and later adapted for football, which measures team strength according to results and the quality of opposition faced.
Spain currently top the Elo rankings ahead of Argentina and France, a factor that heavily influenced the model’s prediction.
‘Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition,’ Goldman Sachs said in its report.
The bank’s economists noted that their prediction also fits a long-established World Cup trend.
‘Our prediction aligns with the historical pattern that the World Cup almost always comes back to Europe after having been won by a South American team,’ the Goldman economists wrote.
France were identified as Spain’s closest challengers, with a 19% probability of winning the tournament and becoming three-time world champions. Argentina, seeking to become the first nation since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup, were assigned a 14% chance of success.
Brazil were given an 8% probability of winning the title, while England and the Netherlands were each estimated to have around a 5% chance.
Goldman Sachs said Argentina’s prospects were reduced by what it described as a ‘winner’s slump’ effect — the tendency for defending champions to perform below expectations at the following World Cup.
France’s chances were affected by the prospect of facing top-ranked Spain in the semi-finals, while England’s odds were lowered because of what the bank called a history of tournament underperformance, geographical disadvantages and a slightly unfavourable route through the knockout stages.
The model projects two heavyweight semi-finals: Spain against France and Argentina against Brazil. Goldman Sachs ultimately forecasts Spain defeating Argentina in the final, which will be played in New York on 19 July.
The bank said its projections broadly mirror those of bookmakers, although it is less optimistic about England’s chances than most betting markets.
To generate its forecasts, Goldman Sachs analysed nearly 20,000 competitive international matches played since 1978. The model also incorporates factors such as attacking talent, recent form, mentality and geography, and will be updated daily throughout the tournament as results unfold. Click here for a PDF of the full Goldman Sachs report.
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