Spain’s ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) is gaining ground in voter support as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez takes a firm stance against the US–Israeli war on Iran, while the far-right Vox party — which backs the offensive — is losing momentum, according to two polls released on Monday.
Sánchez has positioned himself as one of the most outspoken Western critics of the Iran conflict, describing it as ‘an illegal and reckless war’. ALSO READ: Pedro Sánchez: Middle East conflict ‘much worse’ than 2003 invasion of Iraq.
His left-leaning coalition government has gone further than rhetoric, closing Spanish airspace to US aircraft involved in the strikes and prohibiting their use of jointly operated military bases in southern Spain. ALSO READ: Spain blocks its airspace to US military flights linked to the war in Iran.
Vox, which maintains close ties with US President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, has strongly condemned Sánchez’s position.
Public opposition to the war appears widespread. A survey by state pollster CIS last month found that 85% of respondents rejected the conflict.
New polling data suggests this sentiment may be benefiting the PSOE. A Sigma Dos survey for El Mundo newspaper showed support for Sánchez’s party rising to 27.7%, up from 26.4% in March, narrowing the gap with the main right-wing opposition, the People’s Party (PP). A separate poll by 40dB for El País placed the PSOE at 28.6%, an increase from 27.7%.
In contrast, Vox saw its support decline. The Sigma Dos poll put the party at 17.1% in April, down from 18.3%, while the 40dB survey recorded a slight dip of 0.1% to 18.7%.
The PP remains the leading party in both surveys, with 32.5% support in the Sigma Dos poll and 31.1% in the 40dB poll — modest increases of less than one percentage point. The party has accused Sánchez of straining transatlantic ties and has stopped short of directly criticising Trump or Israel, although its leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has echoed the ‘no to war’ slogan. ALSO READ: Pedro Sánchez responds to Donald Trump: ‘No to war’.
Both polls point to a broader shift in voter behaviour, with support moving away from smaller or more hardline parties toward the two main political forces. The PP appears to be regaining voters from Vox, while the PSOE are attracting former supporters of their left-wing coalition partner, Sumar.
Despite these shifts, Spain’s fragmented political landscape means coalition-building would still be necessary to form a government. Both surveys suggest that, if an election were held now, a right-wing bloc could secure a parliamentary majority.
Spain’s next general election is scheduled for August 2027. Meanwhile, another regional election takes place in Spain on Sunday 17 May, this time in Andalusia. ALSO READ: Andalusia heads to the polls on 17 May in high-stakes regional vote.
ALSO READ: PP wins Castilla y León election, but needs far-right’s support – and PSOE improves its result.
ALSO READ: PP wins Aragón election, dependent on Vox after far-right surge; PSOE records all-time low.
ALSO READ: PP wins in Extremadura, but will have to depend on Vox to govern, as PSOE collapses.
(Main image: Pedro Sánchez, top left, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, bottom left, Yolanda Díaz and Santiago Abascal, all casting their votes on 23 July 2023.)
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